THERE you are, minding your own business, going through the mail and its daily bounty of bad tidings. Let’s see, your 401(k) is in the tank, that valiant effort to refinance the house is going nowhere, and oh yeah, your credit-card company just capped your card limit and is looking for most of the balance.
And then, magically, an invitation emerges from the pile. You’ve been invited to the 81st Annual Academy Awards. Actually, it’s a scribbled note your movie fanatic neighbor dropped in your mailbox. (“Why waste money on a stamp?” you can hear her saying.) Turns out she’s having some people over for the broadcast (Sunday at 8 p.m. on ABC). Sure, it’s BYOB, but she’s making her special nachos, her wide-screen hasn’t been repossessed, and there will be an Oscar pool, with a hokey improvised trophy for the winner. Wow, life doesn’t get any better than that these days.
It could be argued, and already has, that a spectacle as frothy as the Oscars has little salience at a time when people are losing homes, jobs and, in some cases, hope. But then again movie attendance is up this year so far, and there’s nothing quite like gathering around something warm and sparkly when the darkness seems to be intruding at every turn.
Right now I’m in Los Angeles, attending warm-up events and putting some final finesse on my picks, but with the California legislature in marathon sessions to close a huge budget gap, grim realities are casting a bit of a pall here in Oscarland. But the show always goes on, and at some point a lot of us will give ourselves permission to brush away the clouds and stare at the sparkle, the drama and the nonsense that make the Oscars a maypole of American culture.
There is, after all, something oddly reassuring in the folkways of the Oscars. Who’s to say there’s anything wrong with poking fun at someone’s dress or speech instead of spending yet another night casting a gimlet eye on household expenditures? And if you play your cards right in an Oscar pool with gullible or inattentive competitors, there might be some loot in it for you. Or at least a cheesy trophy.
It’s an odd year for those filling out their Oscar slates, not because so much is up for grabs but because so much is writ. “Slumdog Millionaire” is the prohibitive favorite for best picture and a few other big categories. The studio-conceived “Curious Case of Benjamin Button” had a near-record 13 nominations, but “Slumdog,” an independent film partially in Hindi, seems to have gone out front to stay.
Still, there are elements of suspense. Stung by steadily declining ratings (although the show remains a huge draw for the network), the producers of the Oscars have vowed to mix it up this year, so you can tune in expecting innovation and, yes, the occasional train wreck. In the actor races, there are some nail-biters: Mickey or Sean? Meryl or Kate? If you have a pulse, you probably have a rooting interest.
And the movies themselves? There is not a blockbuster in the bunch. But then this year’s Super Bowl included two teams without a huge national following and blossomed into a classic with wonderful ratings and stories to occupy the water cooler.
You may not have seen all the movies this year, but as the Carpetbagger, a daily blogger for The New York Times Oscar Web site, I have spent much of this increasingly long award season staring into precursor awards and pundit prognostications and am here to help you separate the contenders from the pretenders. Oscar intelligence, if there is such a thing, might help you come up with that surprise pick in the supporting actress category to make the Monday afterward seem a bit brighter. There’s nothing like having a little skin in the game to make your night at the Oscars a diverting one.
THE CARPETBAGGER'S 2009 PREDICTIONS
BEST PICTURE
* "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
* "Frost/Nixon" (Universal)
* "Milk" (Focus Features)
* "The Reader" (The Weinstein Company)
* Bagger Pick: "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)
Let’s see, perhaps if some people were put off by the Hindi in “Slumdog,” pulled in by the Holocaust seriousness of “The Reader” or the technical brilliance of “Benjamin Button” . . . oh, who are we trying to kid? The best picture carries all the suspense of your average “Cold Case” ending. The case has been solved, O.K.? Early on “Slumdog” grabbed the hearts of the academy — yes, it had to dig deep — and never let go.
BEST DIRECTOR
* "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.), David Fincher
* "Frost/Nixon" (Universal), Ron Howard
* "Milk" (Focus Features), Gus Van Sant
* "The Reader" (The Weinstein Company), Stephen Daldry
* Bagger Pick: "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight), Danny Boyle
If “Slumdog” were not such a juggernaut there would be much to discuss. The academy loves Stephen Daldry, and Gus Van Sant elevated the biopic. David Fincher is worthy of commendation for deploying all manner of technical wonders. Still, of all the contenders this year, “Slumdog” is the one that most clearly expresses a director’s brilliance. Danny Boyle took a situational approach to shooting in Mumbai, let his actors use whatever language was most suitable and found a way to land it all in a film that, despite its exotic concerns, is kind of a classic Oscar movie.
BEST ACTOR
* Richard Jenkins in "The Visitor" (Overture Films)
* Frank Langella in "Frost/Nixon" (Universal)
* Sean Penn in "Milk" (Focus Features)
* Brad Pitt in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
* Bagger Pick: Mickey Rourke in "The Wrestler" (Fox Searchlight)
If this category was being decided straight up on merit or by Oscar history, Sean Penn would win. Everyone seems to agree that Mr. Penn’s portrayal of Harvey Milk was spectacular, and historically, heterosexual men who play gay — Tom Hanks (“Philadelphia”) and William Hurt (“Kiss of the Spider Woman”) — get to hold hands with the golden guy. But Mr. Penn won fairly recently for “Mystic River.” You would do well to consider the back story of Mickey Rourke, who hit the skids and then came back to inhabit a palooka worn out by his own bad choices. And what if those two roughnecks split some votes? Would that create an opening for the actor’s actor Frank Langella for his spooky turn as Richard Nixon? A tougher category than you think.
BEST ACTRESS
* Anne Hathaway in "Rachel Getting Married" (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Angelina Jolie in "Changeling" (Universal)
* Melissa Leo in "Frozen River" (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Meryl Streep in "Doubt" (Miramax)
* Bagger Pick: Kate Winslet in "The Reader" (The Weinstein Company)
Oh boy, all indications are that it’s Kate Winslet’s year, in part because she has never won, but tread carefully. Some argue that she is nominated for the weaker of her two films (the other being “Revolutionary Road”) and that she has done more remarkable work in the past. And Meryl Streep has a deservedly deep and loyal following in the academy. And if either Melissa Leo or Anne Hathaway sneaked between them, no one could argue that their work was not worthy. In a year where many of the main categories are writ, you’d better guess right on this one.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
* Josh Brolin in "Milk" (Focus Features)
* Robert Downey Jr. in "Tropic Thunder" (DreamWorks, Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
* Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Doubt" (Miramax)
* Bagger Pick: Heath Ledger in "The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)
* Michael Shannon in "Revolutionary Road" (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage)
An indelible performance and an untimely death. No contest, no debate, Heath Ledger.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
* Amy Adams in "Doubt" (Miramax)
* Penélope Cruz in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" (The Weinstein Company)
* Bagger Pick: Viola Davis in "Doubt" (Miramax)
* Taraji P. Henson in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
* Marisa Tomei in "The Wrestler" (Fox Searchlight)
Anybody who tells you he knows what’s going to happen in this category is talking through his hat. Yes, Penélope Cruz is favored, but it’s for a movie not many people saw that has no other nominations. Marisa Tomei had significant screen time in a movie people liked, while Viola Davis had a much smaller role but performed it in a way that few people who saw the movie are going to forget. Many odd dynamics are in the air; if you win here, you will gain a critical edge. I’m going with Ms. Davis, but it’s a hunch and nothing more.
BEST ART DIRECTION
* "Changeling" (Universal), Art Direction: James J. Murakami, Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
* Bagger Pick: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Art Direction: Donald Graham Burt, Set Decoration: Victor J. Zolfo
* "The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.), Art Direction: Nathan Crowley, Set Decoration: Peter Lando
* "The Duchess" (Paramount Vantage, Pathé and BBC Films), Art Direction: Michael Carlin, Set Decoration: Rebecca Alleway
* "Revolutionary Road" (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage), Art Direction: Kristi Zea, Set Decoration: Debra Schutt
A big category with no “Slumdog” in sight, and a place where “Button” should find some of the admiration that brought it 13 nominations. “The Dark Knight” was plenty eye-catching, and the visually arresting formalism of “Revolutionary Road” lingers in the mind’s eye, but “Button” was painted with a warm palette and seamless technology.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
* "Changeling" (Universal), Tom Stern
* "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Claudio Miranda
* "The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.), Wally Pfister
* "The Reader" (The Weinstein Company), Chris Menges and Roger Deakins
* Bagger Pick: "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight), Anthony Dod Mantle
One of the tightest races of the night. If “Slumdog” sails through in this category, you can bet it’s going to be a big night for those kids. The lush shooting style of “Button” made every frame seem suitable for a poster. “The Dark Knight” shot big, piled up a lot of epic elements and still managed to keep the movie moving. But I am a sucker for the run-and-gun ethic of “Slumdog”: light equipment and small crews raced through the tight streets and alleys of Mumbai; you’re with them from the very opening scene.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
* "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Screenplay by Eric Roth, Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
* "Doubt" (Miramax), Written by John Patrick Shanley
* "Frost/Nixon" (Universal), Screenplay by Peter Morgan
* "The Reader" (The Weinstein Company), Screenplay by David Hare
* Bagger Pick: "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight), Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy
Eric Roth and Robin Swicord took a short but endlessly complicated story by F. Scott Fitzgerald and turned it into a shootable screenplay. David Hare transformed a hermetic novel played out in the close space between two people and found the cinematic dimensions, while Peter Morgan and John Patrick Shanley deftly adapted their own work. But Simon Beaufoy turned a game-show trope into a movie that took off and did not stop.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
* "Frozen River" (Sony Pictures Classics), Written by Courtney Hunt
* "Happy-Go-Lucky" (Miramax), Written by Mike Leigh
* "In Bruges" (Focus Features), Written by Martin McDonagh
* "Milk" (Focus Features), Written by Dustin Lance Black
* Bagger Pick: "WALL-E" (Walt Disney), Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Original story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter
Hard not to be charmed by the paradox of choice in this category. Courtney Hunt found riches on hard-bitten edges; Mike Leigh made happiness seem like a choice, minus any syrup;Martin McDonagh concocted a gangster comedy; while Dustin Lance Black stepped up to a story many screenwriters have flailed at. Still, the academy is smitten by “Wall-E,” and it can make its adoration count here.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
* "Bolt" (Walt Disney), Chris Williams and Byron Howard
* "Kung Fu Panda" (DreamWorks Animation, Distributed by Paramount), John Stevenson and Mark Osborne
* Bagger Pick: "WALL-E" (Walt Disney), Andrew Stanton
“Wall-E” was much mentioned as a best picture contender, in part because of its mostly silent opening homage to film history, so Oscar watchers were stunned when “Kung Fu Panda” took all the awards from the International Animated Film Society. That was an inside job, full of backstage politics you don’t want to know about. It’s “Wall-E” this year at the Oscars, and in DVD collections everywhere.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
* "The Baader Meinhof Complex" A Constantin Film Production, Germany
* "The Class" (Sony Pictures Classics), A Haut et Court Production, France
* "Departures" (Regent Releasing), A Departures Film Partners Production, Japan
* "Revanche" (Janus Films), A Prisma Film/Fernseh Production, Austria
* Bagger Pick: "Waltz with Bashir" (Sony Pictures Classics), A Bridgit Folman Film Gang Production, Israel
O.K., one last time: “Gomorrah,” an Italian film about how theMafia infiltrates everyday life, is a near-criminal omission. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t worthies here, including “The Class,” in which viewers think they know what is under way, but not so. “Waltz With Bashir,” however, both broke new cinematic ground and amazed and entertained viewers. Put a nickel on “Bashir” and keep it there.
For Extra Credit
Semieducated guesses, nothing more: “Jai Ho” for best song, “Slumdog” for score, “Man on Wire” for documentary feature, “Slumdog” for editing, “Benjamin Button” for makeup and visual effects, and “Dark Knight” in the sound categories.
In the shorts category the Bagger has a miserable record, so best keep that lucky coin handy and do a lot of flipping. “The Pig” for live-action short? Or maybe “Toyland”?
“Presto” is a safer bet in animated short. And in documentary short, the Bagger threw the sticks in the air and came up with “Smile Pinki” because it thrums the heartstrings.
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